Events

What information is conveyed by epistemic conditionals like "If Sarah is in London, Mary is too"? The literature contains two answers. The first is that conditionals express ordinary propositions. The second is that conditionals convey information of a different kind, and require a departure from standard truth-conditional frameworks. I present two arguments against a truth-conditional analysis. Both arguments exploit probability. Crucially, though, they don't depend on endorsing a controversial link between probabilities of conditionals and conditional probabilities; rather, they can be run starting from widely accepted assumptions. I close by sketching a non-truth-conditional semantics for conditionals. While my focus is on epistemic conditionals, the broad non-truth-conditional line I defend can be generalized to conditionals and modals of all sorts, including counterfactuals.